Unreachable bottom. Experts do not rule out a new collapse of the ruble exchange rate
The situation around the ruble makes everyone nervous. Will the fall continue? And what is the real value of our national currency?
Paradise trees ...
The head of the Central Bank S. Ignatievconfirmed: Russia continues to spend huge amounts of money to keep the ruble afloat (more than $ 6 billion in September alone). What for? And how to understand, such help is a ventilation device for the almost dying or just a vitamin supplement to reinforce the strength?
- The Central Bank now supports the ruble only in order to smooth out the panic of investors in the market. If the ruble collapses due to the cheapening of oil, it will not be particularly restrained,Maxim Petronevich, Senior Researcher, Center for Development, HSE.
Positive forecasts promise the domestic currency, if not “resurrection from the ashes”, then at least a fixation on the bar at 30 rubles. for a dollar. Deputy Minister of FinanceS. Storchakestimates it at 29-30 rubles / dollars, C.Ignatiev believes that "the ruble will be strengthened," his first deputy agrees with himA. Ulyukaev, who said that the devaluation of the ruble is complete and now he is waiting for the rise.
- The fair price of the ruble is about 30 rubles. for a dollar, now it is tangled in speculative demand, I am sureAlexey Mamontov, President of the Moscow International Monetary Association.
Course 32,5-33 rub. for dollar considers normalAnatoly Aksakov, President of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia. In his opinion, “Greece’s situation can now worsen the situation in the global economy and provoke a significant drop in oil prices (and hence the ruble exchange rate. - Ed.). But, after the boil is opened, recovery will begin. ”
An even more optimistic forecast follows from the annual index.Big mac, calculated by the authoritative edition of The Economist: analysts compare prices for a sandwich from MacDonald’s in different countries and estimate national currencies based on this. Their calculations show that the ruble ... is undervalued 1.6 times. In Russia, a meatball with a loaf costs $ 2.27, and in the US - $ 4.07. Based on this, experts conclude that a fair ratio of the ruble and the dollar is 20 rubles. for the "green".This joking method is considered to be an informal analogue of the purchasing power parity index, calculated monthly by central banks of all countries.
... or a new depression?
Meanwhile, the head of the Bank of EnglandM. Kingstated that the world is waiting for a financial crisis, the like of which has not yet existed. And Russia is no exception. The $ 50 billion withdrawn from the Russian Federation for the first three quarters of this year, as well as the decline in oil prices, indicate that the ruble has room to fall.
- With stable oil prices by 2014, the dollar will cost 34-36 rubles. If the price of oil falls to $ 60 per barrel, we will see the price, which the Ministry of Economic Development called in its pessimistic scenario - 40 rubles. for a dollar and even higher - I agreeM. Petronevich.
At the same time, “Russia's GDP growth rates with a decrease in average annual oil prices to $ 80 per barrel will slow down to 2–2.5%,”
E. Nabiullina, Minister of Economic Development. What does this mean for us?
“Approximately in a month, the rise in prices for imported goods will start, as stocks are still being sold,” says Anatoly Aksakov. - The goods of domestic producers for some time will remain cheaper, but then they will catch up.